Who will be the breakout player of the playoffs and the MVP of Round 1? Which team has the easiest path to Finals?
Our NBA Insiders give their bold predictions and what to watch in a supersized edition of 5-on-5.
1. What Round 1 matchup are you most excited to watch?
Jackie MacMullan, ESPN.com: Why do I find myself drawn to Warriors-Spurs? It is lopsided on paper, but Steve Kerr formed much of his coaching philosophy at the knee of Gregg Popovich, and as Sting once crooned, “Hypnotized by you if I should linger … staring at the ring around your finger …” Golden State is nicked up and out of sync and feels (gasp!) vulnerable — yet will advance anyway. In the interim, maybe the wily Manu Ginobili and his equally resourceful coach will make it interesting.
Chiney Ogwumike, ESPN analyst & WNBA All-Star: Even though Joel Embiid is unlikely to play at the start of the playoffs, the 76ers are still the NBA’s hottest team. We all know that the internet is rooting for a Masked Embiid matchup against his Twitter foe Hassan Whiteside.
Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight: Thunder-Jazz presents a handful of star players, the most evenly matched teams and could easily go seven games. The teams haven’t played since Dec. 23, well before Rudy Gobert was back from injury, and prior to the Jazz swinging a midseason trade that shipped Rodney Hood to Cleveland for Jae Crowder. In other words: We have no idea how these teams matchup, because these players haven’t really squared off yet.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: Sixers vs. Heat. There’s something about watching an exciting young team make its maiden voyage into the tumultuous waters of the postseason. Remember the Thunder going punch for punch with the Lakers in 2010? The Sixers have been building for this moment for years, and they not only have the energy of youth, but the momentum of a 16-game winning streak propelling them into the series.
Marc J. Spears, The Undefeated: Blazers versus Pelicans. The series includes two NBA MVP candidates who are thirsty to take their careers to the next level with a strong playoff performance in Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis. No one questions their star level. But legends are made in the playoffs.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Oklahoma City vs. Utah. This is easily the closest series on paper, with ESPN’s Basketball Power Index giving the Thunder a narrow 53-47 advantage in projected chances to win by virtue of home court. It’s also probably the best two combined teams; the Jazz finished fifth in point differential and Oklahoma City seventh, meaning whoever wins this series could give the Houston Rockets a scare in Round 2.
2. Who has the easiest path to the Finals?
Herring: The Sixers have it really nice. Yes, they have a treacherous first round against Erik Spoelstra and the Heat, who may cook up something to challenge Ben Simmons‘s unwillingness to shoot from outside the paint. That and Joel Embiid’s potential absence for the first few games are concerning given Miami’s stout defense. But if Philly advances to Round 2, the young team would almost certainly be favored there, too – especially if they draw the Celtics without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Either LeBron or Toronto would figure to be waiting in the conference finals, but the road to that point is about all a team could ask for.
Spears: No NBA team will have it easy in the conference finals. So, the better question is which team has the easiest road there. The 76ers do not have to face the Toronto Raptors or Cleveland Cavaliers en route to the East finals, but this is new pressure for the young Sixers.
Pelton: Philadelphia 76ers. With Kyrie Irving injured and the Boston Celtics no longer so formidable as a second-round matchup, the Sixers clearly have the easiest path to the conference finals. And since almost any opponent there is going to be difficult, I guess I’d say that also means Philadelphia has the easiest path to the NBA Finals.
Ogwumike: The Cavs have had nine lives so far this season. Add the playoff bracket to the count. Not as blatantly obvious as last year, Cleveland’s late losses this season have positioned the Cavaliers best for postseason success.
Arnovitz: Silly 5-on-5 Master! This ain’t an NCAA regional bracket, it’s the N-freaking-B-A playoffs — there are no easy paths! By design, it’s typically the No. 1 seed that faces the less stalwart competition, but you think the Raptors are eager to see the Cavs as their potential second-round matchup? You could argue the Rockets won’t sweat the Timberwolves — and can shoot their way past the Thunder or Jazz, but the Warriors — injuries and all — figure to be a far different team in a month. The easiest path to the Finals belongs to Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy and Doris Burke. They get to fly first class.
MacMullan: The answer has to be a team in the East, since the two best squads reside in the West, but which one? Are we audacious enough to suggest the Sixers, those 28-wins-of-a-year-ago Sixers, can pull this off? Any moment Joel Embiid, the self-proclaimed Phantom of the Process, will start trolling Hassan Whiteside and we’ll have a front-row seat to the unraveling. Philly’s path to the conference finals doesn’t include LeBron or the Raptors, so that alone qualifies the Sixers as a legitimate answer to this question. Everyone keeps chiding me that Ben Simmons isn’t really a rookie. He’s certainly not playing like one … so … could it happen? Too delicious to consider.
3. Who will be the Round 1 MVP?
Pelton: LeBron James. A series of close games against the Indiana Pacers could give James a chance to continue his clutch heroics from the regular season, and with so much time between games there’s no reason to expect Tyronn Lue to cut James’ minutes now. So I think the likely second-place finisher in regular-season MVP voting will be the most valuable player in the first round of the playoffs.
Arnovitz: The Houston Rockets could potentially average one million points per game against the Timberwolves, which means James Harden will post some gaudy numbers as he steps back, changes speeds and generally decimates the Wolves’ fragile defense.
Herring: I have a feeling Anthony Davis will go off in this series against the Blazers, regardless of whether the Pelicans find a way to pull off the upset in Round 1. His versatility will present enormous challenges for Jusuf Nurkic, who prefers to drop into the paint but won’t always be able to do that because of Davis’s shooting ability. AD averaged 31.5 points, 11 boards and three blocks per game in his first playoff showing against the Warriors three years ago, and it’s not inconceivable that he could do just as much damage here.
Spears: Russell Westbrook will be trying to embarrass the Utah Jazz the entire series. The Thunder have had their struggles all season, and they’ve been disrespected with the ups and downs of their big three. Westbrook will try to impose his will on the up-and-coming Jazz and take the spotlight from heralded Donovan Mitchell.
MacMullan: I’m putting all my chips on Giannis Antetokounmpo. Here are his numbers in four games against first-round opponent Boston this season: 33.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists a game, with a .53.9 percent shooting percentage and an average of 10.5 free throws a game. With underrated Boston big man Daniel Theis shelved for the postseason, those numbers could actually increase. (And yet, invoking the immortal Jerry West, this does not necessarily mean the Greek Freak’s team will win.)
Ogwumike: Damian Lillard is primed to make some noise this postseason, but I am expecting James Harden to officially claim his throne as the real MVP. While people may still say James can’t be trusted after the way the Rockets exited last year’s playoffs, please remember that the league’s leading scorer playing on the best team in the best conference now also has Chris Paul in his ear to keep him focused.
4. Who will be the breakout player of the postseason?
Arnovitz: The Sixers have been hearing the murmurs — the playoffs are different and teams will lay off Ben Simmons, give him the Rajon Rondo treatment and force him to shoot. But you can’t sag on speed, and when Simmons gets rumbling in the open court, a defense has far more to worry about than a pull-up jumper from the Sixers’ point guard. Yes, Simmons will have some problem-solving puzzles to work against more prepared defenses, but he’ll find ways to hurt opponents, perimeter shots be damned.
MacMullan: We’ve been reciting the gaudy statistics all season of a Houston lineup that includes (likely) MVP James Harden, resident Yoda Chris Paul and center Clint Capela. The arrival of Paul created even more easy buckets (read: dunks) for the rapidly improving Capela, but aside from his league-leading field goal percentage (65.2), Capela has emerged as one of those agile, rangy big men who track down opponents and simply abuse them by swatting their offerings into the seats. His two-way play has been a tad overlooked amid the plaudits for his high-octane backcourt. As Houston continues to advance, so will Capela’s case for a max deal when the season ends.
Pelton: Fred VanVleet. Perhaps VanVleet has already broken out; he’s gotten plenty of love from the national media for his lead role in a Toronto bench that has been key to the Raptors’ success. Still, I think VanVleet has the opportunity to prove in the postseason that he’s more than just a sparkplug off the bench by being one of Dwane Casey’s most trusted options to finish games with so much on the line.
Spears: Ben Simmons will become one of the elite stars this postseason. He should have been an NBA All-Star. Along with Joel Embiid, Simmons will lead the Sixers to the East finals. Say hello to the reincarnation of Magic Johnson on a much more athletic level in the fun-to-watch Simmons.
Herring: Similar to last year, when the Bucks drew the Raptors in a first-round series, Giannis will be the best player by far in his matchup. The gap will be even larger this time around, against the Al Horford-led Celtics. Boston had no real answer for him defensively, as Antetokounmpo posted 33.5 points per game against the C’s during the regular season, his second-highest mark of any opponent.
5. What is your bold Round 1 prediction?
Ogwumike: No teams will sweep their opponents in the first round.
Spears: Giannis Antetokounmpo and the No. 7 seed Milwaukee Bucks will knock out the injury-plagued Boston Celtics. Losing Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward will be too much for Boston to overcome. All-Star balloting showed fans are high on Giannis. CBS’ “60 Minutes” has featured the Bucks’ star. It’s time for The Greek Freak to make some playoff noise.
Herring: Not sure if I’d quite go as far as to predict it — I guess I don’t see a true upset in this round, as lame as that sounds — but I could absolutely see the Pelicans beating the Blazers. Portland’s guard play is better, but Jrue Holiday is the most well-rounded player in the backcourt on either team, and he’s capable of helping New Orleans steal a game. It would require a Herculean effort from Davis, and likely hot shooting from E’Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic. But there’s enough talent to get it done if Alvin Gentry can design a solid game plan.
Arnovitz: The Utah Jazz will advance and then take the Rockets to seven games in the conference semifinals.
MacMullan: DeMar DeRozan will be an absolute stud. Having spent time in Toronto last weekend, the unease surrounding the Raptors’ fan base is palpable. They are worried about losing Game 1 (again). They are worried Kyle Lowry and DeRozan will shrink in the moment. The matchups were not set when I was there, giving them ample time to fret about every possible doomsday scenario. Enough already. DeRozan has submitted an All-NBA season, becoming a more efficient player, expanding his range to the 3-point line, and finally — finally! — tuning out the naysayers. He’s also assumed the mantle as the NBA’s unofficial spokesperson for confronting mental health issues, yet another reason to root for Heir Canada.
Pelton: Three players (LeBron James, Ben Simmons and Russell Westbrook) average triple-doubles.
EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — Entering what Magic Johnson told him will be “the biggest summer” of his life, Lonzo Ball will work on but not alter his shot and he wasn’t too concerned about what he showed LeBron James, Paul George and other potential free agents in his rookie season.
“No, the way I play is to help my team win, I am not really worried about who is not here, I am worried about the guys that are here and I tried to do what I could and help my team out,” Ball said when asked if he felt pressure to show star free agents what he could do this season. “So, whether it be LeBron, Paul George or whoever, if they liked it, they liked it. If they didn’t, they didn’t, I can’t do anything about it now.”
During the Los Angeles Lakers‘ exit interviews Thursday, Ball said Johnson, the team president, and GM Rob Pelinka’s message to him was that this would be the most crucial summer of his life. The 20-year-old must get stronger physically after missing 30 games this season to shoulder and knee injuries. As for his shooting technique, Ball said he would not alter it in any way and that he just planned on working on it through repetition this summer.
Johnson had said earlier in the season that management would see how the 6-foot-6 Ball shot the ball this season and then decide whether the team needed to tinker with his unique shooting form. Ball averaged 10.2 points, 7.2 assists, 6.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals while shooting 36 percent from the field and 30.5 percent from beyond the arc.
“Shoot it with confidence for one and just keep putting the work in,” Ball said when asked what Lakers brass told him about how to improve his shooting and if any changes would be made to his technique. “Don’t change your form or nothing. I have been shooting like that my whole life, they said they are fine with it.
“Just make sure I am getting the reps up. Just perfect it pretty much. If you want to be a good shooter, you got to shoot and start making them and that will translate to the game.”
Ball missed the final eight games of the season because of a left knee contusion but said the injury was feeling better. Ball, who also missed 15 games earlier in the season because of a sprained left MCL, finished with 13 double-doubles and two triple-doubles as a rookie.
The Lakers are excited about Ball’s passing, rebounding, defense and ability to push the pace. But Ball had stretches where his shot was hot and then ice cold, and he has to develop more offense off pick-and-rolls, drives and in the midrange game — all things he said he would work on this summer.
The No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft also had to deal with constant attention surrounding his outspoken father LaVar, and even smaller things like getting a haircut that went viral.
Ball said his father was not a distraction this season. LaVar criticized Lakers coach Luke Walton earlier in the season and said that the coach had lost the team during a nine-game losing streak in early January.
But he didn’t make much noise regarding the Lakers after that, as he spent most of his time in Lithuania with Ball’s brothers, LiAngelo and LaMelo, who were playing professionally there. Lonzo Ball was asked if he asked his father to tone things down.
“Nope,” Ball said. “Never tell him any of that. He pretty much does what he does and I do what I do.”
Asked if his father was ever a distraction, Ball added: “Nope. First year was all me and it is done now and on to the next one.”
It is a massive summer for Ball and the Lakers. Johnson and Pelinka plan to pursue two max free agents this summer with James and George the biggest targets if they opt to consider the Lakers. Lakers management has positioned the franchise to be able to potentially clear as much as $70 million in cap space if restricted free agent Julius Randle does not return and the Lakers find a solution, probably the stretch provision, to the $37 million owed to Luol Deng, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks.
The Lakers not only will try to sell free agents on playing in L.A. but also on their young core of Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart that helped them finish 35-47 — a nine-game improvement from the season before despite a rash of injuries.
Kuzma, who averaged 16.1 points and 6.3 rebounds as a rookie, said that no matter who the Lakers get in free agency this summer, Ball knows he has to be “bring it” next season.
“I think he’s going to attack his mentality,” Kuzma said when asked how his best friend on the team will go into the offseason. “There’s one thing he needs to do — for us to be great, no matter who comes here, everything is going to fall on his head no matter if it’s a superstar that comes or not. That’s just the reality we live in.
“For him and us, we all know he has to bring it next year and he will for sure.”
AUSTIN, Texas — Quarterback Johnny Manziel played in his second and final game of the Spring League on Thursday night and has a little more than a month before he has to make a decision about his future in football.
Manziel has a standing offer from the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, a CFL team. If he elects to sign with the Tiger-Cats, he will be making a two-year commitment to playing for the team. CFL training camps begin May 16 for rookies, so Manziel has about a month to sign with the Tiger-Cats or decide to wait for an offer from an NFL team.
“I’m straight back to working out and doing what I did when I came here,” Manziel said of his future after the Spring League. “Everything else will sort itself out. I’m trying to do what I can do to come back to playing football whatever capacity that is.
“We know when deadlines are. We have another month or so to work out and not worry about anything.”
The Spring League is a developmental league with a two-game season that provides opportunities for players, who pay a fee to be there, hoping to showcase their play for a chance to land on an NFL roster.
Being back on the football field has been great, Manziel said: “It’s been beyond my wildest dreams. There was a time there I didn’t know if I would actually do it. … I’m extremely happy just to be healthy, just to get to throw the ball around. I’ve missed this.”
Manziel said he felt better on Thursday night than he did in the first game on Saturday. Manziel was 10-of-16 for 188 yards and an interception, including 8-of-10 for 145 yards in the first half. Manziel added 27 rushing yards on six attempts and two touchdowns.
One of Manziel’s best throws came in the first quarter when he threw a 50-yard pass to Antwan Gooley down the right sideline. On the next play, the quarterback ran for a 14-yard touchdown.
Manziel acknowledged that his throwing is still rusty, but he felt he “showed [he] can still throw the ball around.” Manziel emphasized that he can’t control whether an NFL team wants to sign him but that he’s “just happy to be back on the field.”
“I got to do exactly what I want to do and what I’ve been missing for the last two years,” Manziel said.
NEW YORK _ After spending her life in South Carolina, A’ja Wilson is headed for Las Vegas. The consensus national player of the year was the No. 1 selection by the Aces in Thursday’s WNBA draft held at Nike’s New York Headquarters.
Wilson, a 6-foot-5 forward, averaged 22.6 points and 11.8 rebounds with 105 blocked shots as a senior for South Carolina, which lost to UConn in the NCAA tournament’s Elite Eight.
Wilson, a native of Columbia, South Carolina, led her hometown school to the national championship in 2017.
She is the first Gamecock to be picked No. 1 in the WNBA draft, and the first top pick from the SEC since Tennessee’s Candace Parker in 2008.
The Aces also had the No. 1 pick last season, when the franchise was still in San Antonio as the Stars and chose Washington guard Kelsey Plum.
San Antonio had the league’s worst record each of the last three seasons, with single-digit victories each year.
Former New York Liberty and Detroit Shock coach Bill Laimbeer has taken over the Aces as coach and general manager, and praised Wilson’s skills as being pro-ready.
The Aces are a young team; only free-agent signees Tamera Young at forward and Carolyn Swords at center have more than four seasons of experience in the WNBA.
Boston Red Sox reliever Joe Kelly was suspended six games, and New York Yankees designated hitter Tyler Austin was suspended five games by Major League Baseball for their roles in a bench-clearing brawl Wednesday night.
Kelly and Austin were fined, too, but the amounts weren’t immediately known. Both players appealed their punishments, and they are eligible to play while their appeals are considered.
Six other players and coaches were punished for their roles in the brawl, including Red Sox manager Alex Cora, Yankees third-base coach Phil Nevin, pitcher CC Sabathia of the Yankees and shortstop Xander Bogaerts, infielder Marco Hernandez and second baseman Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox. Sabathia, Bogaerts, Pedroia and Hernandez received fines for entering the field during the skirmish while being on the disabled list.
The melee broke out in the top of the seventh inning of the AL East rivals’ game at Fenway Park on Wednesday night, after Austin rushed the mound when he was hit by a pitch from Kelly, and both players began punching away in the brawl.
The benches had cleared briefly in the third after Austin’s spikes clipped Brock Holt‘s leg on a slide into second base. Holt took issue with the contact and they exchanged words before being separated.
Then with the Yankees leading 10-6, Kelly nearly hit Austin and then caught him on the side with a 2-1 pitch clocked at 98 mph. Austin slammed his bat on the plate, threw it down and took four steps toward the mound while hollering. Kelly waved Austin at him, and things quickly escalated.
The scuffle spilled across the field before it broke up in front of the Boston dugout on the first-base side, with Yankees sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton pushing the pile. Yankees hitting coach Marcus Thames used both hands to shove Austin all the way across the infield toward the New York dugout.
Austin, Kelly, Nevin and Yankees relief pitcher Tommy Kahnle were ejected.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
I’ve said throughout this 2018 NFL draft process that I believe Sam Darnold is the best quarterback in this class. But that’s just my opinion. I know Louis Riddick likes Baker Mayfield and Mel Kiper has Josh Allen as his No. 1 signal-caller. That lack of consensus is representative of conversations I’ve had with NFL personnel evaluators, and it’s why I think this is the most interesting QB class in 19 years of evaluating the NFL draft.
How does this year’s crop compare to quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2008? Let’s take a look. Below are my grades and excerpts from my scouting reports for every first-round QB over the last decade, along with the grades for the top five guys — Darnold, Allen, Josh Rosen, Mayfield and Lamar Jackson — in this class. These are in order of highest grade (Andrew Luck) to lowest (EJ Manuel).
Note: The “as a prospect” blurbs are how we viewed each player coming out of college. The grades are from my final evaluations before they were drafted.
As a prospect: “There’s no such thing as a can’t-miss prospect, but Luck has everything you’re looking for in a quarterback. In terms of physical tools, he has a prototypical frame, strong arm and above-average pocket mobility. In terms of his football intelligence, he has a strong understanding of how to run an offense and he makes sound decisions on the field. Finally, there’s no question about his ability to step into an NFL huddle and take charge of it.”
In the NFL: It has been a mixed bag for Luck, who has made three Pro Bowls and threw for 4,761 yards and 40 TDs (only 16 INTs) in the 2014 season. He has played in only 22 games over the past three seasons, though, and missed all of 2017 with a shoulder injury.
As a prospect: “Matt Ryan doesn’t have the arm strength of a JaMarcus Russell, and he isn’t a dynamic open-field runner, but he is clearly the most NFL-ready quarterback in this year’s draft class. He has better-than-average arm strength, he’s accurate and he understands the game. A lot has been made of the amount of interceptions he threw during his senior season at Boston College, but it’s important to remember that he didn’t have a strong receiving corps and that BC put the ball in the air far more often in 2007 than in years past.”
In the NFL: Ryan has a 95-63 record as a starter and has missed only two starts since being drafted. He has been named to three Pro Bowls, one All-Pro Team (2016), won an MVP (’16) and outside of a historic meltdown should have a Super Bowl title to his name.
As a prospect: “Winston is one of the best prospects we’ve evaluated the last 10 years at the skills that translate to the NFL level, including making pro-style reads, going through progressions and throwing with anticipatory accuracy. He is also a good on-field leader. The concern with him has to do with his off-field behavioral and maturity issues.”
In the NFL: Winston’s career has been a bit disappointing so far, with 69 TDs to 44 INTs and a record of 18-27. He made the Pro Bowl his rookie season, but the Bucs haven’t made the playoffs yet under his guidance.
As a prospect: “There are concerns about the system Bradford played in at OU and the season-ending shoulder injury he suffered last year, but we still think he’s an excellent value here. His shoulder has clearly healed and his arm may be even stronger than it was before the surgery. We also believe he has the mental aptitude to make a successful transition to the NFL.”
In the NFL: Bradford has always been extremely talented — and extremely injury prone. Now with his fourth team (Arizona), he has started only 80 games in his career.
As a prospect: “The two things that set RG III and Luck apart are concerns about RG III’s durability and how long it will take for him to transition to more of a pro-style offense. While there are concerns about the pro-style offense, he’s done it enough in college that you know he’ll be successful in the NFL. If Luck is 1, then RG III is 1A. In fact, he has an even stronger arm and he moves just as well. If he stays healthy, he’ll be the quarterback Washington so desperately needed and well worth the picks they gave up to get him.”
In the NFL: Griffin was incredible as a rookie, leading the Redskins to the playoffs and throwing 20 TDs to five INTs. But after his injury he went 5-15 as a starter in Washington and was inactive the entire 2015 season. He signed with Cleveland in 2016, was out of football in 2017 and recently signed on as a backup with the Baltimore Ravens.
As a prospect: “Sanchez doesn’t have as much arm strength or the same body of work as Matt Stafford, but on the other hand teams have fallen in love with his intangibles and accuracy during the offseason. There’s a lot to like about his pocket presence and ability to elude the rush. We are concerned about rushing him into the starting lineup, but if any of this year’s quarterback prospects have the mental toughness to learn on the fly Sanchez is the one.”
In the NFL: Sanchez led the Jets to two straight AFC Championship Games, but it was downhill after that. He has been a backup since 2014 with Philadelphia, Dallas and now Chicago.
As a prospect: “Stafford has very good upside. He has a very strong arm, good size and adequate height. In other words, the sky’s the limit for Stafford. Our concern is that he lacks elite intangibles. This is problematic when you look at the situation in Detroit. The best-case scenario is Stafford winds up as the Lions’ franchise quarterback for years to come. In order for that to happen, however, the Lions need to bring him along slowly and that’s going to prove difficult. If they rush him, the Lions risk losing out on their investment.”
In the NFL: Stafford has improved every season and played every game the past seven seasons for Detroit. With only one Pro Bowl selection and no playoff wins, he hasn’t produced as some fans may have liked. But the Lions clearly have their franchise QB, who is only 30.
As a prospect: “Gabbert has the frame, intangibles and arm strength teams look for. He is a tough leader who can play through pain and rally his teammates, and while he needs to improve his pocket mobility and ability to handle pressure he has the toughness and foot speed to do so. It’s somewhat surprising he fell this far because he is the most accurate of the top three quarterbacks on our board, and he has the football acumen to make the transition from a college spread scheme to a pro-style offense.”
In the NFL: Gabbert has been a bust, going 5-22 with the Jaguars before being traded in 2014 to San Francisco. He hasn’t thrown for more than 12 TDs in a season and is currently a backup with Tennessee.
As a prospect: “Tannehill is one of the most talked-about prospects in this draft. On one hand, there are concerns about his lack of experience and his inability to win games late last year. On the other hand, he has all the physical tools and mental toughness teams look for in a starting quarterback. It’s also important to point out that he’s more accurate than the numbers suggest, because his receivers dropped so many balls last year that it skewed his completion percentage and hindered his ability to win games.”
In the NFL: Tannehill played all 64 games in his first four seasons for the Dolphins, but only 13 over the past two seasons, including missing all of last year. He has flashed potential, but missed the Dolphins’ lone playoff appearance since he arrived in Miami after suffering a partial ACL tear in Week 14 of the 2016 season, and has 106 career TDs to 66 INTs.
Pre-draft ranking: No. 4 overall
As a prospect: “There’s no question that he developed some bad habits with his footwork (lazy/sloppy with lower-body at times) and ball security (dangling ball with one hand when moving in the pocket), but both are correctible. The bottom line is that Darnold is the most complete quarterback in the 2018 class and he has the type of makeup that most good NFL starters possess. Darnold grades out as a high-level NFL starting quarterback and he projects to be a top-five pick.”
As a prospect: “Newton has the physical tools — frame, arm strength, mobility — teams covet, and he proved this past season he can play at a high level while dealing with the kind of adversity that comes with the territory for first overall picks. He flashes above-average accuracy when his footwork is sound but he is the definition of a boom-or-bust prospect. He played in a run-heavy scheme that simplified his reads and signaled plays in from the sideline. It doesn’t mean he can’t be successful running a pro-style offense. It just means that he faces a steeper learning curve. Inconsistent footwork causes him to miss the strike zone too much, and he needs to do a better job of keeping his eyes downfield when forced to move around. Finally, there are the polarizing intangibles. Some question his maturity and ability to win over the locker room at the NFL level, while others point to his record as proof that he’s an effective leader. He led his team to a JUCO championship two years ago and led Auburn to the 2010 FBS championship.”
In the NFL: This scouting report holds pretty true heading into Newton’s eighth season. He has only a 58.5 percent career completion percentage and can miss some easy throws — but he can also fit the ball into the tightest of windows. He has been to three Pro Bowls, won an MVP award and has a 7-7 postseason record. He has also run the ball more than 100 times every season outside of 2016 and has been exceptionally durable (missed three starts in seven seasons).
As a prospect: “Mariota has prototypical size, outstanding intangibles and football intelligence, and rare athleticism for a QB. He has a strong arm, a quick release, and he is very accurate when throwing on the run. His ability to improve his accuracy and overall efficiency on throws that require anticipation – as he transitions from Oregon’s up-tempo spread system to an NFL offense — will be critical to his success.”
In the NFL: Mariota has had injury issues, including a broken fibula in Dec. 2016, but has led Tennessee to a winning record in two of his three seasons and won a playoff game last season. He still can improve his accuracy and needs to cut down on turnovers (15 INTs last season), but Mariota seems to be on an upward trajectory.
As a prospect: “Bortles is our top QB in this year’s class. He has prototypical size, mobility and outstanding intangibles. He is not a finished product and needs some work with his lower-body mechanics to improve velocity and accuracy. However, he shows excellent poise inside the pocket and has great instincts when extending plays and working off schedule. Bortles’ game reminds us a lot of a young Ben Roethlisberger.”
In the NFL: Bortles is one of the most polarizing players on this list. He holds only a 21-40 record as a starter in Jacksonville, but led the Jaguars to the AFC Championship Game last season and had three touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs. His accuracy is still spotty and he has 64 INTs in four seasons. It will be interesting to see if he can carry the momentum from last season.
As a prospect: “One of the top two quarterbacks in this class, Wentz is blessed with a strong combination of size and athleticism. He has very good arm strength to make all the necessary throws. He displays quality accuracy at all three levels. There are some concerns about his lack of experience and making the jump from the FCS level. However, Wentz has the tools, football intelligence, maturity and leadership skills to develop into a quality starting QB in the NFL.”
In the NFL: Early returns on Wentz look terrific. The Eagles gave up a lot to get him, but he went 11-2 as a starter last season, threw 33 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and was an MVP candidate before tearing his ACL. The arrow is pointing up.
As a prospect: “Goff is an experienced three-year starter who is one of the most natural passers in this class. He has excellent pocket presence and feels pressure naturally to buy time while going through progressions. Goff shows accuracy and touch with the ability to deliver from an uneven platform. He has added weight and that eases concerns about his durability. He might need time adjusting to an NFL playbook coming from a wide-open system. He is one of the top two quarterbacks in this class and has the tools and acumen to develop into an above-average starter.”
In the NFL: Goff had a historically poor seven-start rookie season in 2016, before excelling under new head coach Sean McVay last season. His decision-making was much improved and he was tied for second in the NFL with 8.0 yards per pass attempt. This will be a big season for him.
Pre-draft ranking: No. 11 overall
As a prospect: “Rosen is the best pocket passer in the 2018 draft and is NFL ready. Accuracy, touch and timing are his best traits. Throws from a balanced base. Gets the ball out on time. He lacks ideal mobility and turnovers have been an issue (26 INTs and seven fumbles lost in 30 starts), but the reality is that Rosen carries an elite grade based solely on his tape. If a quarterback-needy team at the top of the draft passes on Rosen it will have everything to do with concerns regarding his durability and “football character.”
Pre-draft ranking: No. 12 overall
As a prospect: “Allen has elite arm strength and his accuracy is good when his feet are set properly. Also has better-than-average accuracy when on the move. Allen is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks to come out of college in the last five years. His ceiling is incredibly but so too is his bust potential. The team/situation he’s drafted into will be far more important to his success than his draft slot.”
As a prospect: “The concerns about Locker’s inconsistent accuracy from within the pocket were expected to hurt his stock more than they did in the end. He must improve his footwork and the consistency of his release, but he has all the physical tools, enough size, strong arm and excellent mobility. There are no questions about his intangibles, either. Locker is the kind of player who can command the huddle and win over a locker room. If he can improve his fundamentals and ability to hit receivers from within the pocket he will prove to be worth the pick.”
In the NFL: The concerns about Locker’s inconsistent accuracy proved true, as he had a career 57.5 percent completion percentage and 27 TDs to 11 INTs. He went 9-14 as a part-time starter in four seasons with Tennessee before retiring.
As a prospect: “Manziel is the most polarizing player in this year’s draft. On the downside, there are concerns about his ability to make plays from within the pocket and stay healthy in the NFL. Plus, his off-the-field behavior has some wondering if he’ll be the kind of leader who’s the first player in and the last player out of the building. On the plus side, he’s a fierce competitor when he takes the field, he has above-average arm strength and he is an escape artist who can buy time for his receivers to get open and break long runs when he gets a lane to scramble.”
In the NFL: Manziel’s maturity has certainly been an issue, as he lasted only two tumultuous seasons with Cleveland before being cut. He’s currently attempting a comeback.
Pre-draft ranking: No. 18 overall
As a prospect: “Russell Wilson is the closest NFL comparison for Mayfield in our opinion, but there are still some obvious flaws in that comp. Mayfield is one of the most polarizing players in this class, in large part due to his outstanding football character and leadership but debatable maturity. In our opinion, Mayfield grades out as a good NFL starter but he clearly comes with some red flags (measureables, footwork, played in spread offense). When all said and done; Mayfield is a likely top-10 pick in the 2018 NFL draft.”
As a prospect: “Flacco certainly has the makings of a franchise quarterback. He’s tall enough to scan the field from the pocket, flashes good pocket presence and has the strongest arm of any quarterback in this year’s class. However, he isn’t nearly as polished as Matt Ryan and he played against a lower level of competition at Delaware. Keeping that in mind, he’s going to have a steeper learning curve, so it’s going to take time for him to realize his potential.”
In the NFL: Whether or not you believe Flacco is elite, he has had sustained success at the NFL level. He’s 92-62 as a starter, has missed only six starts in 10 seasons and has reached the playoffs six times, including a Super Bowl victory. He’s also 10-5 in the playoffs.
As a prospect: “A poor performance at his pro day, concerns about his lean frame as it relates to his ability to handle NFL punishment and average arm strength are legitimate concerns that caused Bridgewater’s stock to drop substantially. There is a lot to like about his tape, though, and he could prove to be a steal with that in mind. He reads coverage, anticipates well and shows excellent footwork in the pocket. His ability to handle and beat pressure also stands out.”
In the NFL: Bridgewater led the Vikings to the playoffs in 2015 as a Pro Bowler, before blowing out his knee in training camp prior to the 2016 season. He has thrown only two passes since then and signed on with the Jets this offseason.
As a prospect: “Only was a one-year starter (13 career starts) and will need time to develop and hone his craft. He’s an accurate passer with the frame and quality pocket awareness, mobility and arm strength to develop into an effective NFL starter.”
In the NFL: It’s way too early to make a determination on Trubisky. He had an up-and-down rookie campaign, in part due to his inexperience and in part due to a lack of offensive playmakers.
As a prospect: “Watson’s ability to transition to a pro-style offense will ultimately dictate whether or not he succeeds in the NFL. A proven winner, there’s no denying he has the physical tools and rare intangibles to develop into a franchise quarterback.”
In the NFL: Watson was tremendous in his rookie season (19 TDs and 8 INTs) before tearing his ACL. He made some rookie mistakes, but his athleticism and playmaking ability were undeniable. Hopefully, he comes back healthy this season.
As a prospect: “Weeden is accurate and can get the ball out of his hands quickly, plus he has a very strong arm. However, there are concerns about his ability to make sound decisions under pressure. He has to improve his ability to beat the blitz. His age (28) is a concern, but it’s not a significant red flag. If he starts early in his career, they can still get six or seven years of quality football out of him.”
In the NFL: Another Browns first-round QB miss. Weeden came into the league as a 28-year-old rookie but never progressed. He went 5-15 with Cleveland and finished his career with 31 TDs and 30 INTs.
As a prospect: “Ponder has had problems staying healthy and there are concerns about his durability going forward, but he has had the opportunity to show his toughness and there is a lot to like about his willingness to play through pain. He doesn’t have the strongest arm and will have some trouble driving the ball downfield, but he does an excellent job of anticipating and delivering the ball in stride on short-to-intermediate routes. He is also light on his feet and can buy time within the pocket.”
In the NFL: Ponder led the Vikings to the postseason in 2012 (along with Adrian Peterson’s MVP season), but was injured before the playoff game. Outside of that season, he went 4-15 with Minnesota and was a backup on several teams through the 2016 season. He hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since 2014.
As a prospect: “At just under 6-foot-7 and 244 pounds, Lynch has one of the strongest arms and highest ceilings in this class. He’s an above-average athlete, showing the ability to extend plays with his mobility and pick up first downs when he scrambles. Lynch lacks polish, though. He played in a scheme that simplified his reads, and he doesn’t always see the entire field despite his height. He fails to locate the open man at times.”
In the NFL: Lynch has had a disappointing career so far, starting only four games in two seasons. With Case Keenum signed this offseason in Denver, Lynch will have to fight for playing time.
As a prospect: “Only the third FBS player with multiple seasons of 5,000 total yards of offense, Mahomes faces a steep learning curve transitioning to a pro-style offense and his mechanics are all over the place. However, he’s a hard worker with an outstanding skill set, including a powerful arm and terrific arm talent.”
In the NFL: Mahomes played well in his one 2017 start. Kansas City traded away Alex Smith this offseason, so Mahomes will enter 2018 as the presumed starter.
As a prospect: “In terms of natural ability you couldn’t ask for anything more in a QB prospect. At 6-foot-6, Freeman is tall enough to scan the field from the pocket. He’s big enough at 248 pounds to bounce off would-be tacklers and is mobile enough to pick up yards with his feet when nothing’s available downfield. The concern we have is his ability to absorb an NFL offense and adjust to the speed and complexity of NFL defenses. There couldn’t be more of a red flag for a quarterback when it comes to film evaluation than that.”
In the NFL: Freeman had a terrific sophomore season (25 TDs, 6 INTs, 10-6 record) but struggled outside of that year. He had three seasons with at least 17 INTs and played in only five games from 2013-15.
Grade: 84
Pre-draft ranking: No. 43 overall
As a prospect: “Jackson is a very difficult evaluation, as no player in college football the last two years has been more explosive with the ball in his hands. But he needs a lot of refinement as a passer — specifically when it comes to his inconsistencies with progression reads, anticipation and ball placement. There’s also legitimate concern about his potential durability given his slight frame (6-2, 216) and inevitable high volume of carries in the NFL. Simply put; he’s too dynamic not to find ways to get the ball in his hands, but he might not be refined enough as a passer right now to hand him the keys to an NFL offense as a rookie.”
As a prospect: “Tebow is a long way from developing into a functional NFL quarterback, and he might never become one. We have concerns about his footwork and elongated delivery, and his struggles at the Senior Bowl only magnified those issues. He has reworked his delivery, but has had only a few weeks to make those changes. However, he brings intangibles that set him apart from almost any other player in this draft, and if he doesn’t work out as a quarterback he showed at the combine that he has enough athleticism, determination and toughness to become an H-back and work as a signal-caller in short-yardage and Wildcat situations. Still, this was a surprising pick.”
In the NFL: Tebow never did become a “functional” NFL quarterback, but did lead his 2011 Denver team to the postseason (including a win). He was 8-6 as a starter, but managed only 17 career TD passes in two seasons as a QB.
As a prospect: “There is no questioning Manuel’s physical tools, size, mobility and leadership qualities. However, the tape reveals concerns about his ability to get through progressions and make sound decisions under pressure. He also needs to improve his spotty accuracy, because he forces his receivers to adjust too often.”
In the NFL: Probably the most shocking first-round QB on this list, Manuel started 10 games his rookie season — and then eight games total over the next four seasons. He has 20 TDs and 16 INTs for his career, and is currently a backup QB in Oakland.
The Cleveland Browns and wide receiver Jarvis Landry are close to finalizing a long-term deal that would average more than $15 million per year, a source told ESPN’s Josina Anderson.
The Browns acquired Landry in a trade last month with the Dolphins, sending a fourth-round pick this year (123rd overall) and seventh-round pick in 2019 to Miami in the swap.
Without a new contract, Landry would play the 2018 season on the franchise tag, which the Dolphins used on him before the trade. That would have paid him $16 million this season.
Landry will look to boost a Browns wide receiver group that scored seven touchdowns in 2017; Landry had nine for the Dolphins. Kenny Britt, who was released in December, tied for the team lead in touchdowns for wide receivers with two (with Rashard Higgins and Corey Coleman).
A three-time Pro Bowler, Landry is a sure-handed receiver who led the league in catches in 2017 with 112; all Browns receivers had 134, led by Higgins and Ricardo Louis with 27 each. ESPN Stats & Information reports that the Browns have never had a 100-catch receiver.
Landry missed 1,000 yards by 13 but had 1,136 and 1,157 yards the previous two seasons.
Only Antonio Brown (471) and Julio Jones (411) have more receptions than Landry’s 400 since he debuted in the NFL in 2014. Last season, Browns receivers caught 57 percent of the passes thrown to them; Landry has caught 71 percent in his career.
Information from ESPN’s Pat McManamon was used in this report.
What series, player or storyline is your first-round obsession?
Chris Peters, NHL prospects columnist: The Boston Bruins–Toronto Maple Leafs series brings multiple layers of intrigue. Of course, there’s the whole Original Six angle. These are two historic franchises and the more recent history of their 2013 first-round playoff series featured the iconic Bruins comeback in Game 7 that still causes the stomachs of Maple Leafs fans everywhere to churn. More than anything, I’m interested to see what a healthy Toronto team can do against the overall depth and experience of Boston’s lineup.
How will Auston Matthews handle going head-to-head with Patrice Bergeron‘s line? Will things open up for Mitch Marner to make an impact? Can Maple Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen outduel the Bruins’ Tuukka Rask? Will Toronto coach Mike Babcock find a way to outwit Boston’s Bruce Cassidy, who definitely has the advantage when it comes to on-ice assets?
Of all the first-round series, this one definitely interests and excites me most. I’m not sure the Maple Leafs have the depth to survive, but their top players still have the potential to make this a competitive series — and even give Toronto a chance to pull off the upset. I don’t plan on missing a second of this series.
Victoria Matiash, NHL fantasy columnist: However it unfolds, one very good NHL team is guaranteed to get the boot from the first round when the Leafs and Bruins play seven games or less. So I’m drinking up every bit of action from that series in the meantime.
The Bruins have one of the league’s best forward units in Brad Marchand, Bergeron and David Pastrnak. The Leafs are riddled with young scoring talent three lines deep (habitually headlined by Matthews, but look out for the Nazem Kadri/Marner forward pairing this series). Both clubs can score, with only three goals separating them after 82 games. The Bruins, better defensively, are still a bit banged up, while the Leafs’ blue line sports holes. Andersen has dominated Boston during his NHL career, while Rask boasts excellent postseason numbers. Boston’s effective fourth line of Tim Schaller and Sean Kuraly — expected to suit up Game 1 after missing some time — should cause Toronto’s offense some concern. There’s just so much going on here.
Then there’s the vengeance narrative. The current class of Maple Leafs can pish-posh 2013 all they like as ancient history, but there isn’t a single fan in Toronto over the age of 12 who can’t tell you where they were, what they were wearing and on whose shoulder they wept in shock during the closing period of that year’s opening series. So, while Matthews, Marner, William Nylander and others may not have been around for any of it — or even old enough to drive — that doesn’t diminish Toronto’s thirst for, not revenge exactly, but a shot at making it right. This series was a coin flip for me. When pushed, I went with the Bruins on record. I hopefully expect to second-guess that prediction from now until April 25.
Greg Wyshynski, senior NHL reporter: Sergei Bobrovsky against his horrible playoff past. The Columbus Blue Jackets goalie is arguably the best regular-season netminder of the past four seasons, as his .930 even-strength save percentage since 2014 is the best of any goalie with more than 200 games. But in his 18 career playoff games, Bobrovsky is 3-10 with an .887 overall save percentage, which includes five games against the Pittsburgh Penguins last season in which he posted an .898 EV save percentage.
Here’s the thing: 12 of Bobrovsky’s 18 playoff games have come against the Penguins, including all 11 with the Blue Jackets. So is this a postseason problem or a Penguins problem for Bobrovsky? We’re about to find out … unless it’s also a Washington Capitals problem, given that he has been as bad against them in the regular season (64 goals in 22 games) as he has been against Pittsburgh (64 goals in 23 games).
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Sidney Crosby says the team isn’t looking too much into its 7-0 win over the Flyers in Game 1 and explains how the Penguins can improve moving forward.
Emily Kaplan, national NHL reporter: In the course of winning the past two Stanley Cups, Sidney Crosby has played 48 playoff games, which amounts to more than half of an NHL regular season. That’s 48 additional games of shoving, checking, sprinting, muscling and chirping — all while most of his peers are resting. And that’s not including events like the World Cup of Hockey, which Crosby and many of his teammates participated in before the 2016-17 NHL season.
The Penguins’ quest for a third straight Stanley Cup fascinates me. Perhaps you have heard, but Pittsburgh has a chance to become the first team to win three consecutive Cups since the New York Islanders notched four in a row from 1980 to 1983. Why has it been three-plus decades since another team has matched the Islanders’ feat? Probably because all of those games and that wear-and-tear eventually take its toll. Perhaps because in this salary-cap era, keeping a championship-caliber roster of stars intact is nearly impossible.There’s more parity in the NHL now than ever. That’s why, if Crosby & Co. pull it off, the three-peat will be all the more impressive.
Ben Arledge, Insider editor: I’m pumped to see a pair of dynamic, top-tier first lines rise up on the playoff stage. First, there’s the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s top trio of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and J.T. Miller. This unit has so many components in creating scoring opportunities, especially when it’s out there with Victor Hedman on the point. Stamkos and Kucherov combined for 186 points this season; Hedman tallied 17 goals from the blue line; and Miller has played at nearly a point-per-game pace since joining the Bolts at the trade deadline. That’s electric. The foursome joins Alex Killorn on a 23.9 percent effective power play as well. Tampa Bay lit up the league with 290 goals this season, 17 more than the next best team, and this top unit is a big reason why this offense is so feared.
Then there’s the Winnipeg Jets’ top trio of Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Kyle Connor. Wheeler put himself in the MVP conversation with 91 points; Scheifele produced a point per game; and Connor netted 31 goals as a rookie. Toss in Dustin Byfuglien’s 45 points from the point, and you have a dangerous crew. Not surprisingly, the Jets trailed only the Lightning in finding the back of the net this season (their top goal-getter wasn’t even on this line). It’s going to be fun to watch the creativity and elite scoring talent of both of these high-octane first lines in a playoff environment. Expect some highlight-reel goal-scoring sequences in the opening round from these two units.
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Golden Knights defenseman Shea Theodore sends a wrister from just inside the blue line and into the back of the net for Vegas’ lone goal in its Game 1 victory over Los Angeles.
Sachin Chandan, ESPN The Magazine researcher: My first-round obsession is a series of medieval proportions: the Vegas Golden Knights vs. the Los Angeles Kings. I’m fascinated to see the Golden Knights in their first test in the playoffs against a dangerous team. The Golden Knights get the advantage on offense, but the Kings have a defensive and special-teams edge, having led the league in penalty-kill percentage and goals against. The Kings bring a treasure trove of playoff experience, led by MVP candidate Anze Kopitar and two-time Stanley Cup winner Jonathan Quick in net. While goalie Marc-Andre Fleury won three Stanley Cups with the Penguins, the Golden Knights are otherwise a relatively inexperienced playoff team. Vegas’ breakout season and story have captured my attention, so I will be glued to this series.
